Institute for the Study of War bu paylaşımı tarihinde X'te yaptı. Konum: metindeki ilçe/şehir adından çıkarıldı. Haritadaki pin olay noktasını değil, Rusya ülkesini gösterir. Kategori: savaş.
MORE: The Kremlin intends to accustom NATO militaries and governments to a baseline level of Russian activity and airspace violations in an effort to create tactical surprise if or when the Kremlin conducts further escalations — such as direct drone strikes on NATO targets.
The clearest historical comparison is Egypt’s actions in the lead-up to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when it conducted regular military exercises near the Israeli border that initially prompted Israeli reactions but were gradually treated as routine –with the result that the Israeli military partially dismissed Egypt’s actual deployments to invade as just another exercise.
The Russian military is not conducting a rapid military buildup on NATO’s borders, to be clear, and this is an inexact analogy — but NATO must ensure that it does not relax into treating Russian drone incursions and aggressive flight paths by Russian military aircraft as routine and unimportant occurrences, either in terms of raising the threshold of what Russian action merits a NATO response (a fight the Kremlin has unfortunately already partially won) or in terms of reducing the urgency with which NATO states and populations respond to individual Russian actions.
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